TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iranians have seen it before: A youngish presidential candidate firing up crowds with fist-waving rants against the West, then displaying his Islamist bona fides with courtesy calls to hard-line clerics.
Saeed Jalili, familiar to outsiders because of his prominence as a nuclear negotiator, has tried to distance himself from outgoing president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has fallen out with the clerical leadership that controls Iran. But he is employing the same strategy that worked for Ahmadinejad eight years ago — and in the murky world of Iranian politics, where there are no credible polls and elections are a highly controlled affair, it has made him, for many, the presumed front-runner.
''No compromise! No submission!'' shouted supporters at rallies this week that had men in front and women segregated in the back.
Perhaps more than any of the other seven candidates allowed to run by the clerics, Jalili presents a riddle: A negotiator who seems to dislike give-and-take; an opponent of international outreach who nonetheless noted in a 2006 interview that Iran's ''big question'' is whether it can ever restore relations with Washington.
The answer, judging by his statements ahead of the June 14 vote, may be: Not necessarily.
''I'm opposed to detente,'' he declared at one campaign stop. ''The principle for us is to counter threats — not rapprochement. We have to implement the discourse of resistance in society.''
In an attempt to showcase his piety, Jalili traveled to the seminary city of Qom, where he respectfully adjusted a microphone Wednesday for Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, once considered the spiritual mentor of Ahmadinejad. A day later, he told a women's gathering to shun Western ways and embrace motherhood as their ''core identity.''
Iran has no credible voter polling to handicap the candidates, but there is a sense of momentum behind Jalili. He is clearly popular with the ruling clerics who hand-pick the ballot list and faced widespread accusations of vote rigging four years ago to keep Ahmadinejad in power.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claims to remain neutral, yet has repeated similar messages that reject any major concessions on Iran's nuclear ambition or support for key regional allies including Syria's Bashar Assad and the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. The powerful Ayatollah Yazdi — a member of the Assembly of Experts, the only group capable of ousting the supreme leader — backs Jalili as well.
Among the public, Jalili is admired as a ''living martyr'' for losing part of his right leg in the 1980s war against Saddam Hussein's Iraq, then backed by the United States, which left him with a noticeable limp that lends enormous status.
The 47-year-old Jalili — who looks older with his white hair and beard — was the clerics' trusted point man during years of fruitless nuclear negotiations. While the clerics — not the president — set major policies such as foreign relations and nuclear, a Jalili presidency would align with an unyielding approach in possible nuclear talks with the U.S. and other world powers after the election. Four rounds since last year have made almost no headway.
The West believes Iran is seeking to develop atomic weapons, although Tehran denies that.
The establishment-friendly slate suggests the regime used its candidate-vetting powers to ensure a comfortable outcome rather than risk allowing reformists to regroup under former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was stunningly cut from the race by election overseers.
''This election is all about the regime looking for security and predictability,'' said Sami al-Faraj, director of the Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies. ''It's about no surprises.''
For outsiders, one surprise might be that at this point — with inconvenient candidates removed — there is something of a real campaign underway, with the outcome far from certain. There is the possibility of rival candidates uniting, or moderates creating some reformist momentum by backing someone.
''Much will depend on candidates dropping off and making alliances rather than all of them battling on their own for votes,'' said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, director of the Middle East Studies program at Syracuse University.
The Iranian presidency's main mandate is shepherding the domestic economy, which has been battered by a combination of Ahmadinejad's free-spending and international sanctions over Tehran's nuclear program. This could become a weak spot for Jalili, a former diplomat and adviser who has never held elected office or dealt with a budget.Continued...
01 Jun, 2013
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